Jonathan H. Todd

Finance, Investing, Economics

Tag: United States economy (page 1 of 8)

Corporate profits surged in Q4 2016. What does that mean for stocks?

Last week’s GDP report caught headlines for the weak economic growth in Q1. But a less-discussed part of the report was the surge in corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Continue reading

Americans might be too optimistic about the U.S. economy. For now.

Where GDP goes, consumers follow.

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1, below estimates of 0.9%. There were some positive underlying trends within the report, but the market took this as a disappointment.

The bigger worry is that the GDP report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment – which measures how people feel about the prospects of economic growth and their own budgets – track each other.

Continue reading

What the real fed funds rate says about the U.S. economy

The real fed funds rate has sat below zero since the Financial Crisis. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?

Continue reading

Investors won’t short market, but option hedges have surged

With so many unknowns in Washington, few investors want to explicitly short the market. But paying for insurance to protect on the downside is increasingly appealing to many investors.

Continue reading

William Blair’s Brian Singer on the link between populism and asset allocation

Brian Singer, CFA, of William Blair discusses the linkage between geopolitics – especially populism – and asset allocation.

What are some of the main investment factors investment managers should consider in today’s environment?

Three primary factors: central bank behavior, geopolitics, and populism. Central banks have spent a long time building their balance sheets, and now we have to look at a long time unwinding the balance sheets. Geopolitics–the world now is geopolitically unstable. It wasn’t that way when I first got into the industry, but now we have to take account of those developments around the world. And then, finally, populism. Populism is a huge movement, and it’s a movement that stands for nothing. It stands against something, and that’s the existing elite.

The 3 charts to start your day: Le spread, Trump’s economy, and the retail apocalypse

Good morning. Here are 3 charts that are driving the chatter around finance, investing, and economics today.

Continue reading

When political consolidation hurts: Brexit version

Theresa May should get a full vote of confidence from the Tories, but will that actually result in real policy? Ask Donald Trump.

Continue reading

Where Does the Dollar Go From Here?

The dollar has become the bellwether for the Trump administration’s economic policies, but it’s unclear where the greenback will go from here.

Continue reading

Watching the Post-Election 2/10 Spread

The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries provides a good benchmark for how investors feel about the Trump administration.

Continue reading

Economic Growth Matters. So Does Inequality.

Politicians should focus on growing the economy to help those left behind. But that’s not enough – inequality still looms large over capitalism.
Continue reading

Older posts

© 2017 Jonathan H. Todd

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑

Bitnami