With so many unknowns in Washington, few investors want to explicitly short the market. But paying for insurance to protect on the downside is increasingly appealing to many investors.
This result should lead to a material reduction in perceived political risk in Europe. We do expect some risk premium to linger until legislative elections in June. Both Macron and Le Pen are not part of the mainstream parties that have dominated French politics in the Fifth Republic for nearly 60 years. If Macron becomes France’s next president, he may struggle to implement his agenda without a stable parliamentary majority.
Brian Singer, CFA, of William Blair discusses the linkage between geopolitics – especially populism – and asset allocation.
What are some of the main investment factors investment managers should consider in today’s environment?
Three primary factors: central bank behavior, geopolitics, and populism. Central banks have spent a long time building their balance sheets, and now we have to look at a long time unwinding the balance sheets. Geopolitics–the world now is geopolitically unstable. It wasn’t that way when I first got into the industry, but now we have to take account of those developments around the world. And then, finally, populism. Populism is a huge movement, and it’s a movement that stands for nothing. It stands against something, and that’s the existing elite.
Good morning. Here are 3 charts that are driving the chatter around finance, investing, and economics today.
French citizens put Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the final round of the French presidential election. Did the betting markets get it right?
Theresa May should get a full vote of confidence from the Tories, but will that actually result in real policy? Ask Donald Trump.
The dollar has become the bellwether for the Trump administration’s economic policies, but it’s unclear where the greenback will go from here.
Politicians should focus on growing the economy to help those left behind. But that’s not enough – inequality still looms large over capitalism.
Economics has isolated itself to pure mathematics. We could use a bit more political economy, the philosophical style of yesterday’s economists like Schumpeter and Marshall.