Jonathan H. Todd

Finance, Investing, Economics

New Blog: spotexchanges.net

Hello everyone,

Thanks for checking in here. I have shifted all of my new writing to spotexchanges.net

Please visit the site and let me know what you think.

Thanks,

Jon

Corporate profits surged in Q4 2016. What does that mean for stocks?

Last week’s GDP report caught headlines for the weak economic growth in Q1. But a less-discussed part of the report was the surge in corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2016.

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Americans might be too optimistic about the U.S. economy. For now.

Where GDP goes, consumers follow.

Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1, below estimates of 0.9%. There were some positive underlying trends within the report, but the market took this as a disappointment.

The bigger worry is that the GDP report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment – which measures how people feel about the prospects of economic growth and their own budgets – track each other.

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What the real fed funds rate says about the U.S. economy

The real fed funds rate has sat below zero since the Financial Crisis. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?

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Investors won’t short market, but option hedges have surged

With so many unknowns in Washington, few investors want to explicitly short the market. But paying for insurance to protect on the downside is increasingly appealing to many investors.

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BlackRock’s Isabelle Mateos y Lago on an unstable France, even if Macron wins the presidency

This result should lead to a material reduction in perceived political risk in Europe. We do expect some risk premium to linger until legislative elections in June. Both Macron and Le Pen are not part of the mainstream parties that have dominated French politics in the Fifth Republic for nearly 60 years. If Macron becomes France’s next president, he may struggle to implement his agenda without a stable parliamentary majority.

BlackRock: The market implications of the French vote

William Blair’s Brian Singer on the link between populism and asset allocation

Brian Singer, CFA, of William Blair discusses the linkage between geopolitics – especially populism – and asset allocation.

What are some of the main investment factors investment managers should consider in today’s environment?

Three primary factors: central bank behavior, geopolitics, and populism. Central banks have spent a long time building their balance sheets, and now we have to look at a long time unwinding the balance sheets. Geopolitics–the world now is geopolitically unstable. It wasn’t that way when I first got into the industry, but now we have to take account of those developments around the world. And then, finally, populism. Populism is a huge movement, and it’s a movement that stands for nothing. It stands against something, and that’s the existing elite.

The 3 charts to start your day: Le spread, Trump’s economy, and the retail apocalypse

Good morning. Here are 3 charts that are driving the chatter around finance, investing, and economics today.

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How well did the betting markets predict the first round of the French presidential election?

French citizens put Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the final round of the French presidential election. Did the betting markets get it right?

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These 4 charts explain what the betting markets say about the French presidential election

Sunday April 23rd is the first day of the French presidential election. Betting markets are expecting a different race than the polls.

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