Last week’s GDP report caught headlines for the weak economic growth in Q1. But a less-discussed part of the report was the surge in corporate profits in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Where GDP goes, consumers follow.
Yesterday the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1, below estimates of 0.9%. There were some positive underlying trends within the report, but the market took this as a disappointment.
The bigger worry is that the GDP report and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment – which measures how people feel about the prospects of economic growth and their own budgets – track each other.
The real fed funds rate has sat below zero since the Financial Crisis. What does this mean for the U.S. economy?
This result should lead to a material reduction in perceived political risk in Europe. We do expect some risk premium to linger until legislative elections in June. Both Macron and Le Pen are not part of the mainstream parties that have dominated French politics in the Fifth Republic for nearly 60 years. If Macron becomes France’s next president, he may struggle to implement his agenda without a stable parliamentary majority.
Brian Singer, CFA, of William Blair discusses the linkage between geopolitics – especially populism – and asset allocation.
What are some of the main investment factors investment managers should consider in today’s environment?
Three primary factors: central bank behavior, geopolitics, and populism. Central banks have spent a long time building their balance sheets, and now we have to look at a long time unwinding the balance sheets. Geopolitics–the world now is geopolitically unstable. It wasn’t that way when I first got into the industry, but now we have to take account of those developments around the world. And then, finally, populism. Populism is a huge movement, and it’s a movement that stands for nothing. It stands against something, and that’s the existing elite.
Good morning. Here are 3 charts that are driving the chatter around finance, investing, and economics today.
French citizens put Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the final round of the French presidential election. Did the betting markets get it right?
Sunday April 23rd is the first day of the French presidential election. Betting markets are expecting a different race than the polls.
Theresa May should get a full vote of confidence from the Tories, but will that actually result in real policy? Ask Donald Trump.